At Any Rate

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta broadly discuss some summer themes for European rate markets focusing on seasonality in intra-EMU spreads, Eur swap spread views, SSA thoughts and UK gilt yields.

Speakers:
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategy
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5025853-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss why the dollar still deserves to weaken over the medium-term, recent CNY fixes, tariff and UK/ CHF developments.

Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy 

This podcast was recorded on July 11, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5027112-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The Trump administration announced plans this week to impose a 50% tariff on US copper imports beginning August 1st.  While the 50% level of copper tariffs exceeds our previous expectations, the timing is aligned with our base case and now solidifies a transitions for the copper market towards a period of payback after copper fundamentals were especially tightened by a very sharp pull-forward in US imports in 1H25.  Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to explore what this means for copper prices and fundamentals over 2H25.

Speakers:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research

This podcast was recorded on July 11, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-502515-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Featured in this podcast are Sajjid, Rajiv and Arindam discuss the outlook for Asia macro and rates/FX/equity markets in the aftermath of the latest US announcement on tariffs this week

This podcast was recorded on Jul 10, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5025093-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5023592-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5024505-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global upstream oil and gas spending is expected to hit $543 billion this year, a 1.1% decrease from 2024, with reduced capital allocation across all regions except the Middle East. Capital spending in the US shale sector experienced a 3.2% drop in 2024, with forecasts indicating a further 1.9% decline in 2025, despite rising costs from tariffs on steel and other product. Despite conservative capital plans, US oil liquids production is set to rise by 672 kbd in 2025 and 530 kbd in 2026, boosted by substantial hedging during mid-June's oil price spike. Globally, oil liquids supply is projected to grow by 2.3 mbd this year.

Speaker:  

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on July 3, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4939838-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our global FX strategists, Meera Chandan, Ben Jarman, Patrick Locke, Octavia Popescu and James Nelligan take a look at FX hedge ratios across Australia, Canada, Scandinavia and the Eurozone, and discuss where further adjustments can impact currencies in 2H’25. We also discuss the latest views on sterling following this week’s fiscal news out of the UK, and explain why US payrolls doesn’t derail the USD downtrend.

This podcast was recorded on 03 July 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4974434-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5003828-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5003800-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode of At Any Rate Arindam Sandilya, Juan Duran-Vara and Ladislav Jankovic discuss FX Derivatives themes of interest heading into 2H25. We briefly go over the FX volatility backdrop and then pivot to the six themes: carry, USD skew, correlations, directional exposure in JPY and EUR, JPY surface setup, and wrap it up with the just-in case recession hedges.

Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy
Juan Duran-Vara, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5018065-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Elisabetta Ferrara discuss recent German fiscal and NATO events this week as well as views on carry as a theme, an update on tracking de-dollarisation flows and thoughts on UK rates.

Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategy
Elisabetta Ferrara, European Rates Strategy

This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5014923-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4985123-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5012148-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5005164-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The DM and EM FX strategy team discuss the new themes for currencies heading into 2H25. 

Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Antonin T Delair, Global FX Strategy
Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy
Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets
Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy
Kunj J Padh, Global FX Strategy
Ikue Saito, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 27 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5018024-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4996209-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Looking at the latest outlook for the agri markets and where the risks lie ahead of upcoming formative USDA acreage and stocks reports. As we turn to 2H25, and formative stages of the northern hemisphere growing season and South American export window, most agricultural markets under coverage are trading at price levels below producer gross margins, with arguably negative risk premium across grain, sugar and cotton markets. The BCOM Agri Index down -4% YTD. Our June 2025 Fundamental Outlook continues to highlight that supply-side increases are being absorbed by demand, perpetuating the multi-year decline in global agri commodity availability through 2025/26.

Speaker

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Strategy

This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5008151-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.